Modeling the Minimum Temperature Change of Sirte Station for the Period 1961-2099 Using SDSM Technology

Abstract

This study aims to investigate changes in maximum temperature based on the projections of General Circulation Models (GCMs), which provide mean values over large spatial scales. With the development of downscaling techniques, large-scale GCM outputs can be transformed into projected local climatic data derived for a single meteorological station.

The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was applied to daily mean maximum temperature data from Hun Meteorological Station in order to project the future climate of the study area. The data were divided into four projected periods: 2010–2020, 2021–2031, 2032–2042, and 2043–2053, in addition to a baseline period of 1961–1990, which was used by the model as the reference period for generating the future projections. The analysis was conducted according to the A2a and B2a climate scenarios.

The results revealed that the magnitude of temperature change varied from one month to another and between the two scenarios when compared with the baseline period. Under the H3A2a scenario, the highest change was recorded in March at 3.9°C, while the lowest change was recorded in October and November at −4.5°C. Under the H3B2a scenario, the lowest change occurred in November at −4.5°C, whereas the highest change was recorded in March at 3.3°C. At the seasonal level, maximum temperatures showed an increasing trend during winter and spring, while a decreasing trend was observed during summer and autumn.