ديناميكيات تحقيق التوازن بين أهداف وخيارات المعضلة الثلاثية لسلاسل الإمداد في قطاع النقل الليبي

Abstract

This paper sheds light on the "Supply Chain Trilemma" within the Libyan transport sector. To address this threefold challenge, the paper aims to analyze the inevitable trade-offs among the trilemma's three dimensions, identify the associated objectives and options, and propose potential logistical scenarios. The analysis methodology is based on applying the logic of the "Impossible Trilemma - grounded in the concept of "trade-offs" due to its clarity - and utilizing matrices as analytical tools to anticipate the operational gains or concessions required to balance three competing dimensions, in accordance with priorities dictated by prevailing economic conditions. The paper reached the following conclusions:

Libya’s transport sector faces logistical challenges stemming from a three-pronged operational trilemma that impacts supply chain resilience. This trilemma involves trade-offs among three operational pillars: service quality and delivery speed; low operating costs and cargo capacity; and cash liquidity. Focusing on quality and speed (via air transport) entails sacrificing shipment volume and incurring exorbitant costs; focusing on capacity and cost (via sea transport) results in slower delivery and exposure to risks at global choke points; and focusing on cash flow (via road transport) necessitates reliance on a modest road network that lacks the safety and efficiency required to meet large-scale supply needs. A transport sector supply chain can be made less costly, faster, or more fluid; however, it is rarely possible to maximize all three attributes simultaneously, as achieving any two of them inevitably compromises the third due to structural constraints. Therefore, striking a balance among them is essential to maintaining the resilience of the transport supply chain. Case studies conducted in the paper reveal that both the "impossible trilemma" of transport sector operational pillars (service, cost, and liquidity) and the "impossible trilemma" of transport modes (air, maritime, and land) directly impact supply chain resilience strategies due to the inherent trade-offs in each; furthermore, these two trilemmas conflict with one another and entail unavoidable mutual trade-offs. Addressing these challenges requires balancing inevitable trade-offs to formulate various logistical options and scenarios, thereby overcoming the trade-off dilemma within the framework of the supply chain "impossible trilemma" dynamics.

Recognizing the significance of these challenges and aiming to propose structural reforms within the strategies and policies governing the Libyan transport sector's supply chains, the paper presents several framework matrices. These are designed to model and analyze the dynamics of balancing the trade-offs inherent in the operational "trilemma" and the transport-mode "trilemma," as well as the trade-offs arising from the interplay between these two trilemmas. On this basis, the paper proposed five frameworks for strategic logistics scenarios. These frameworks enable the effective management of the trilemmas surrounding operational pillars, modes of transport, and their intersection, while guiding those responsible for developing and managing supply chain strategies and policies in the transport sector to recognize the risks of falling into the traps inherent in the "impossible trilemma." It outlines fundamental guidelines for overcoming these challenges, leading to the formulation of balanced strategies that identify the optimal positioning for managing Libya’s transport sector supply chains - navigating the interplay between the competing priorities of operational pillars and transport modes.