Supply Chain Risk Management for Pharmaceutical Distribution in Conflict-Affected Regions: Part I – A Tri-Method MCDM Approach for Risk Prioritization
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65405/sjh.2.4.202الكلمات المفتاحية:
Supply Chain Risk Management; Pharmaceutical Supply Chain; Multi-Criteria Decision Making; AHP; TOPSIS; VIKOR; Supply Chain Resilience; Libyaالملخص
Pharmaceutical distribution in developing and conflict-affected environments is exposed to operational, transportation, infrastructure, information-system and regulatory disruptions that can threaten medicine availability and continuity of care. This paper constitutes Part I of a two-part Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) study and focuses on identifying and prioritizing distribution risks in Medical Family Pharmacy, a Libyan pharmacy chain operating a centralized hub-and-spoke model. A structured two-phase expert process involving 25 practitioners identified 15 risks and evaluated them against Cost, Quality, Delivery Time and Reliability. AHP was used to establish criterion priorities, while TOPSIS and VIKOR were applied as complementary ranking methods. The audited criterion weights were 0.160762 for Cost, 0.277293 for Quality, 0.466125 for Delivery Time and 0.095819 for Reliability, with a criteria consistency ratio of 0.0097. The triangulated analysis identifies A1 Delays in Shipment, A4 IT System Failures, A8 Power Outages and A13 Regulatory Non-compliance as the principal risks requiring strategic attention. The paper deliberately reports the complete risk set but concentrates the detailed results on the leading risks, providing a concise conference-paper format while preserving the analytical logic of the underlying study. Part II uses these findings as the input for a phased mitigation framework.
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