An Integrated Risk Assessment Framework for Coastal Road Deterioration and Supply Chain Resilience

الملخص

Problem: Roads are a crucial component of any country's infrastructure and play a vital role in its sustainable economic development. Road quality is a key indicator of quality of life and economic competitiveness. Therefore, it is essential for governmental and economic entities, such as ministries and municipalities, to maintain road networks at appropriate quality levels and adhere to safety standards. This research aims to investigate the deterioration of coastal roads in hot cities, which is experiencing accelerated decline due to the complex interaction of factors that cause road collapse. These factors include high temperatures (reaching up to 47°C), high relative humidity (62-67%), and heavy traffic (more than 600,000 vehicles daily by 2026). This is particularly relevant given the lack of assessment models that integrate these factors with their direct impact on supply chains. This led to the development of the CRAAM model, which studies the six factors of deterioration: crack propagation, moisture damage, thermal stress, permanent deformation, cumulative wear, and asphalt performance. The polymer-modified deterioration index (DI) was weighted using hierarchical analysis with a CR consistency ratio of 0.07. Probability was also added using 

Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) to account for uncertainties in the DI. Three studies from Tripoli showed that the combined effect accelerates deterioration and failure by 50%, and that delays in maintenance and early detection increase road lifecycle costs by more than 60-63%, and the likelihood of supply chain delays and disruptions rises to 72% in critical sections.